Final Project FIN4502

The goal of this project is to estimate the value loss or creation resulting from COVID-19 for a firm of your choice.      you can dismiss the DDM and PE valuation methods in the Quantitative portion.   I strongly suggest that you start working on this project as early as possible. Qualitative Research (Before COVID-19 crisis):  You should include a qualitative analysis where you describe:   o The overall situation of the firm and trajectory o The financial situation of the firm o The prospects for growth and future plans  Please include a brief SWOT Analysis  Detail the reasons supporting your chosen “super-normal growth rate”. You should also justify your  chosen  time-horizon of this “super-normal  growth” stage of the  business  cycle  of  the firm (how long the firm will grow at this super normal rate before using the long term growth rate)  The qualitative analysis must be at least 2 pages (single-spaced and typed). In addition to the 2 pages, you should  explain the rationale behind your choice for all needed assumptions in your valuations. Quantitative Research (Before vs. After COVID-19 crisis):    A: Estimate the value of your firm using three valuation methods (DDM, PE and DCF) before the COVID-19 shock (As of January 2020).    B: Estimate the value of your firm using three valuation methods (DDM, PE and DCF) after the COVID-19 shock (As of April 2020). (Hint for DDM: Has the firm announced any changes to the forthcoming dividends?) ***Before choosing a firm, please make sure that the company is profitable (is having positive earnings) and that it has paid dividends for at least three years.   ***If you are working on the project by yourself, you can dismiss the DDM and PE valuation models.    The value  loss or creation is simply  the  difference  between A and B for each model.  Please answer the question: In your opinion, which valuation method captured the value loss/gain more precisely and why do you think this is the case?  You should submit your quantitative  research in an Excel Workbook.  All calculations should be made by formulas. Any number plugged-in manually will be ignored for grading purposes.    Your assumptions, of course, are the result of your qualitative research. Although these values may be plugged directly (there is no formula), you should describe how you chose the “x” or “y” value as your assumption in the qualitative portion.  For calculation of Beta, your historical observation period will be 2017 – 2019 (3-Year Period). Use monthly returns.  Remember that the discount rate used in the DDM method is the Expected Return estimated from the Capital Asset Pricing Model.  It is understood that an accurate estimation of a firm’s value loss or gain due to COVID-19 is a laborious and complex process which requires data that is not in your reach or possibly not yet available. Attempting to do so is out of the reach of this project. Notwithstanding, you should be ok implementing the basic form of DDM, PE and DCF models as learned in this class. If you face any challenges or limitations, please reach out to your instructor.    You will not be graded by the accuracy of your valuation, data, inputs or output, but rather by correctly implementing the models learned in class. Remarks: * You must show your calculations for Beta. Remember to use 36 months. You can vary this timeframe providing the reasons to do so.   * In this project, you  should consider the 10-year Treasury  rate as the “risk-free” rate. You can find this rate at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10. The risk-free rate will be quite different before and after COVID-19 ..... Just as food for thought: Pay attention to the effect of this rate in your cost of equity and cost of capital.   * Assume S&P500 returns as the “market returns”. You can get the index prices from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). Remember to use the Adjusted Close column. Please keep in mind these are the prices. For your valuation, you will need the returns (Pt+1 / Pt – 1). *  When calculating your firm’s WACC  (In  the  Discounted  Cash  Flow  Model),  you  do  not  need  to calculate the cost of debt. You can find it online and cite your source. * Please indicate your sources for all data used in your valuation.   *  You  may  find  data  for  Quarterly  Dividends.  However,  please  remember  to  use  the  total  yearly  Dividends when estimating the stock value using DDM (Dividend Discount Model).